Monday, January 5, 2009

Fiesta Bowl preview: Texas vs. Ohio State

I will surely be watching this game for more reasons than one. Well One is that I am a Longhorns fan, but Orapko could be headed towards my favorite NFL team come Draft day and I want to see how he performs.

By CHUCK CARLTON / The Dallas Morning News

When Ohio State runs: Starting left guard Jim Cordle is just back from a late-season knee injury, meaning Ben Person will get the start in the mountainous offensive line. Texas faced a large Oklahoma offensive line and held the Sooners to 48 rushing yards. Edge: Ohio State

When Ohio State passes: Freshman Terrelle Pryor has thrown better than expected. Brian Robiskie has caught a pass in 36 consecutive games, and Brian Hartline has averaged 22.8 yards per reception. But after facing Big 12 spread offenses, the young Texas secondary should be ready. Edge: Texas

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Texas vs. Ohio State
7 p.m. Mon., Glendale, Ariz.
Ch. 4 (Fox), KRLD-AM (1080)

When Texas runs: While Texas ranked a respectable 35th nationally in rushing, it struggled when it needed key yards. Neither Fozzy Whittaker nor Vondrell McGee emerged as the go-to running back. Ohio State held opponents to 3.7 yards per carry. Edge: Ohio State

When Texas passes: Quarterback Colt McCoy completed 77.6 percent of his passes with 32 TDs and just seven interceptions. Ohio State counters with All-American cornerback Malcolm Jenkins. Edge: Texas

Special teams: Ray Small averages 15.1 yards on punt returns for Ohio State. Texas' Jordan Shipley has returned kickoffs and punts for touchdowns. Ohio State kicker Ryan Pretorius is just 2-of-5 on field-goal attempts beyond 40 yards. Texas has used Hunter Lawrence and Ryan Bailey, who have combined to hit 10 of 13 field-goal attempts. Edge: Texas

Intangibles: The big question: Who really wants to be here? Ohio State saw its Rose Bowl hopes evaporate with a home loss to Penn State. Texas' national title hopes evaporated when Oklahoma won the Big 12 tiebreaker on BCS standings. The mindset of a team can be all-important in the bowl. Edge: Ohio State

Key matchup: Texas DE Brian Orakpo vs. Ohio State LT Alex Boone

Brian Orakpo represents the kind of athlete who has plagued Ohio State in its recent high-profile losses to Florida, LSU and Southern California.

Powerful and quick, Orakpo registered 10 ½ sacks despite missing 2 ½ games with a sprained left knee. Orakpo won three of the nation's highest profile defensive awards: the Lombardi, Nagurski and Hendricks.

Orakpo's ability makes him the perfect counter to athletic Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor.

Left tackle Alex Boone will probably see a lot of Orakpo and has been embracing the challenge in the bowl buildup. He brings impressive credentials, including imposing size (6-8, 312 pounds). Boone was an All-Big Ten choice and has started 35 games.

Yet some people see a mismatch. One blogger likened the matchup to a Ferrari vs. a minivan. Orakpo has been respectful, praising Boone in interviews and sounding like his agent.

Meanwhile, Boone sees an opportunity if he can battle Orakpo to a standstill on a national stage.

"I'm getting a lot of phone calls from people saying, 'Hey, look, if you have a great game this weekend, it will kind of silence a lot of people,' " Boone told the Columbus Dispatch. "A lot of people think the world of Orakpo. They think that he's everything. So if you shut him down or if you force him to the other side, that's going to say a lot about you."

Edge: Orakpo

Key's to the game

Beanie power: While Texas ranks second nationally in rushing defense (73.6 yards a game), it hasn't seen a back all-season like Ohio State's 237-pound Beanie Wells. Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp described Wells succinctly as a "downhill one-cut" runner. He has missed three games with a foot injury but would undoubtedly like a big game in what might be his final game as a Buckeye. Texas DT Roy Miller and LB Roddrick Muckelroy will be a key to defending Wells.

Next Vince? Terrelle Pryor was projected as Vince Young 2.0. For the moment, he's just highly skilled freshman with an 8-1 record as a starter. Pryor may be better as a passer than Young was at this stage. He's completed 62.5 percent of his passes, with 12 touchdowns and just four interceptions. His biggest asset might be the ability to turn a broken play into a big game. The Texas defensive line must contain him as well as apply pressure.

Need for speed: The Buckeyes have looked overwhelmed in high-profile games against Florida (2006 title game), LSU (2007 title game) and Southern Cal (this season). In those three games, the Buckeyes have been outscored, 55-7, in the second quarter and were essentially finished at halftime. Speed has been a key factor in each of the losses. If the Buckeyes can avoid another crushing early blow to their psyche, they may start believing they have a chance to end the big-game skid.

Blue collar: Throughout the season, Texas has shown remarkable focus. The Longhorns weren't even ranked in The Associated Press Top 10 to start the season and developed a blue-collar mentality at a blue-blood college football power. Now, can Texas do what it has done all season, despite a significant BCS disappointment and more than a month's layoff? Much remains at stake for the Longhorns. But somehow summoning that will one time can be a challenge.

Double coverage

Ohio State offensive coordinator Jim Bollman acknowledged that the Buckeyes might use starting quarterback Terrelle Pryor and backup Todd Boeckman for one or two plays during the bowl.

He also chuckled when he said it, which only added to speculation that all the talk might be a smokescreen. Stranger things have happened in bowls.

Texas may or may not be biting.

"The thing about bowl games is you have a lot of time off, so you can chase ghosts," Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp said.

Texas will win if...

It continues what has worked so well, from Colt McCoy's accuracy and grit to a team mind-set. That might be easier said than done. The Longhorns firmly believe they should be in the national title game instead of Oklahoma. They have said all the right things. We really won't know until the game begins if they're focused on what they have to do.

Ohio State will win if...

The Buckeyes are able to play the physical, rush-oriented game that had so much success in the Big Ten. Ohio State grinds down opponents with a big line and big backs. Defensive players like All-American linebacker James Laurinaitis swarm the football. Ohio State has allowed more than 21 points just once.

SportsDay staff predictions

Chuck Carlton: It won't be as easy as some think, but McCoy will deliver a win at the end. Prediction: Texas, 31-27

Tim Cowlishaw: Longhorns struggle to join Utah and USC as teams that have demonstrated their rights to play for No. 1. Prediction: Texas, 31-27

Brandon George: Longhorns DE Brian Orakpo makes it a long day for Ohio State freshman QB Terrelle Pryor. Prediction: Texas, 31-17

Kate Hairopoulos: Ohio State can't save the Big Ten or their own BCS reputation. Prediction: Texas, 35-21

Tim MacMahon: Big Ten stinks worse than the Big 12 South. Prediction: Texas, 42-28

Bobbi Roquemore: Terrelle Pryor runs wild on Longhorns. Prediction: Ohio State, 35-31

Kevin Sherrington: No-win situation for Texas. If Horns win, it's same old Buckeye bowl showing. If Horns lose ... Prediction: Texas, 28-17

Jean-Jacques Taylor: As a Buckeye, it pains me to admit we're not that good. Prediction: Texas 24-14

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